Dear Editor: Last week, televised nightly news program coverage featured President Joe Biden attending the Detroit Auto Show where he was shown driving the electric motorized Cadillac Lyriq and promoting the future of electric vehicles (EV).
At the beginning of September, President Biden appointed John Podesta, Democratic operative and environmental advocate, as senior advisor to oversee the implementation of the $370 billion clean energy legislation Biden had signed in August. Mr. Biden’s objective is to increase EV production to 50% of American automobiles by 2030.
According to Bloomberg Inc., once a 5% threshold is reached, an acceleration in EV sales is inevitable. If true, then the more than 5% EV sales of all new US cars in the last six months should signal the start of a mass EV adoption.
California has assumed a leadership role in initializing a sweeping plan to reduce greenhouse gases. In 2018, then governor Jerry Brown announced a statewide climate goal of carbon neutrality by 2045. In 2020, current governor Gavin Newsome signed an executive order ending the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) in the state by 2035.
Beginning in 2026, the target is that 35% of all cars will be electric-powered. This would require scaling up the electric cars and renewable energy use such as wind and solar. Currently, as there is no way to store electricity generated by wind power, California’s path is toward more solar.
And even though California seems to be avoiding the construction of more nuclear reactors, some analysts estimate that 10-20 additional reactors would be necessary to generate enough electricity to power the projected numbers of EVs.
However admirable the goal of reducing greenhouse gases vis-à-vis carbon neutrality is in supporting the health of the planet, the proposed timetable of conversion to renewable energy that includes the elimination of the use of fossil fuels is too ambitious. We need a balanced energy plan that incorporates a longer transition.
Recall that it took 40 years for the US to move from coal burning to cleaner natural gas. Natural gas remains the leading source of California’s electric power, 37% in 2020 according to that state’s energy commission. Natural gas, a fossil fuel, when burned creates heat that then propels a turbine. The rotation of the turbine spins a generator which creates electricity.
Natural gas power stations help offset the unpredictability of renewable energy sources. Natural gas is currently used to heat half of the homes in the US.
Aside from the arbitrary timetable to meet decarbonization goals, other pragmatic factors should be considered. In California alone, achieving their net-zero emissions plan would require 30 times more EVs on the road, six times more electric appliances in homes replacing gas appliances, plus four times more wind and solar generating capacity. The energy sector would be required to more than double in size. The accelerated transition to electrified technology would likely result in higher utility bills that disproportionately affect people in rural areas, and the lack of infrastructure would increase the likelihood of power outages. Paradoxically, earlier this month, juxtaposed to touting the merits of EVs amid a statewide heat wave, Gov. Newsome called on citizens to conserve electricity by raising thermostat settings amid peak hours to avoid rolling blackouts.
Furthermore, a Deloitte consulting survey from earlier this year indicated that 69% of those polled would prefer to buy an ICE car as their next vehicle. Reasons for consumer wariness toward EVs included higher prices ($66,000 on average), few model choices, charging infrastructure challenges, long charging times, limits to the range of travel, lithium battery issues including engine fires and, ironically, environmental pollution – CO2 emissions released during mining.
The fact is that the US is nowhere near ready for Biden’s EV timetable; supporting infrastructure requires vast upgrades necessary to meet the proposed changeover. Aside from the travel range limits, recharging an EV battery takes 30 minutes at best compared to five minutes to refill the tank on an ICE vehicle. This will necessitate reinventing the gas station model, adding hundreds of thousands of charging stations and waiting areas to accommodate drivers and passengers as they wait.
Fundamentally, we will need more electricity and more ways to store it. Renewable energy constitutes 20% of US production but only 12.6% of that is actually consumed. As such, our generating capacity is producing a near equivalent of energy waste which essentially defeats the purpose of the green car. As for now, natural gas remains a necessary component in the process of powering electric cars and ensuring a reliable power grid.
Peter Wibell, Rutledge