Readers, viewers, and listeners most frequently ask me, “Who will win the White House this fall?”
If I knew that answer with absolute certainty, I would place heavy wagers in Las Vegas and prepare for a comfortable retirement. If this election cycle has taught us anything, change comes fast, and anything can happen. There may be at least one or two more shoes to drop.
I do believe, and I will say this many times between now and November 5, that VP Kamala Harris doesn’t really have a path to the White House that doesn't include victory in Pennsylvania. Georgia occupies a place of importance similar to the Donald Trump victory map.
Based on population shifts in the 2020 census, with several blue states ceding population to red, IF former President Trump were to carry the same map he did in the race against Joe Biden in 2020, he would have 235 electoral votes.
However, this includes holding North Carolina, where the race is tightening due to a scandal with the GOP nominee for governor. Trump would then only need to flip Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19) to compile 270 Electoral College votes, beating VP Harris, who would have 268, and win a return to the White House.
As a largely Libertarian, I support strong national defense, infrastructure, and local public safety.
I will add that I also believe in and support quality public schools, that the government should stay out of our personal lives, and that your rights end where mine begin, and vice versa.
As a result, I have long been pro-choice as it relates to women and their reproductive rights.
(I also have believed for decades that if instead of regulating the uterus, laws aimed at restricting abortion instead restricted male reproductive organs or mandated condom usage or vasectomy, etc., the debate might’ve lasted about six months.)
Regardless, though I believe much of the GOP has fallen off a cliff to the far right on this issue and have sincere concerns for the right to life, we are where we are on this issue. And about 10 percent of the voting-age population believe reproductive and abortion rights are their number-one issue.
For the sake of this column and polling data, I will assume that most voters placing that issue at the top on either side have long since chosen their candidate.
Undecided voters are in the low single digits in national and most battleground state polling. In most prior presidential cycles and this calendar, we would still be ahead of the debates, and the undecided would be around 12 to 15 percent. So, this base election contest is down to six or seven percent of undecided voters.
In typical presidential election years, suburban women are among the last to decide, often waiting on debate results to make their ballot choice. Women represent roughly 55 percent of the voting-age population, but no monolithic voting block exists on this single issue.
However, suburban women tend to support legal abortion with some limitations, at least during the first trimester, with exceptions for rape, incest, and severe threat to the health or life of the mother. This was the old Reagan GOP standard for legal abortions. (I have to slip this in here, but the court that decided Roe v. Wade (1973-7-2), was a majority GOP-appointed court, with the two dissenters being one very conservative and one very liberal member of that court.)
Ultimately, this national election may come down to the importance of choice among suburban women in metro Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
With six to seven percent reported as undecided, if Harris wins 60 percent of those late-breaking votes on that single issue, which she speaks to very effectively, then analysts and voters can accurately say in the final analysis that the issue of women’s choice drove the decision in the battleground states – and thus determined the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.